Socio-economic factors constrain climate change adaptation in a tropical export crop

Abstract

Climate change will alter the geographical locations most suited for crop production, but adaptation to these new conditions may be constrained by edaphic and socio-economic factors. Here we investigate climate change adaptation constraints in banana, a major export crop of Latin America and the Caribbean. We derived optimal climatic, edaphic and socio-economic conditions from the distribution of intensive banana production across Latin America and the Caribbean, identified using remote sensing imagery. We found that intensive banana production is constrained to low-lying, warm aseasonal regions with slightly acidic soils, but is less constrained by precipitation, as irrigation facilitates production in drier regions. Production is limited to areas close to shipping ports and with high human population density. Rising temperatures, coupled with requirements for labour and export infrastructure, will result in a 60% reduction in the area suitable for export banana production, along with yield declines in most current banana producing areas.